The frequency of former President Donald Trump’s indictments is evidently impacting his polling numbers, leading to significant shifts in the dynamics of the 2024 GOP primary race.
In a recent poll that has just been released, it appears that the 2024 GOP primary may be heading towards a clear outcome. A previous CBS News/YouGov poll conducted in June had shown Trump leading Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by a substantial 38-point margin. However, the latest poll, conducted nearly two months later amid a series of charges against the former president, reveals that Trump has extended his lead over his nearest competitor by an additional 8 points.
The poll asked Republican respondents, “Of the candidates you are considering, or might consider, if the 2024 Republican primary or caucus in your state were held today, which ONE of those candidates would you vote for?” The results indicate that 62 percent of respondents would support Trump, while DeSantis saw his support drop to just 16 percent. Other candidates received even less support, with Vivek Ramaswamy coming in third with 7 percent.
Another recent poll from earlier this month indicated a hypothetical tie between Trump and President Joe Biden in a potential presidential rematch. Both Trump and Biden would receive 43 percent of the overall vote if the 2024 presidential election were to occur today. However, both candidates continue to face high disapproval rates, with 54 percent of respondents disapproving of Biden and 55 percent disapproving of Trump, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
The national poll was conducted less than six months before the first primary and approximately 15 months before the election on November 5, 2024. Both Biden and Trump maintain their leads for their respective party’s presidential nominations.
The survey findings showed that Trump garnered 54 percent of the support from GOP primary voters, with DeSantis trailing in second place with just 17 percent of the vote.
It’s evident that Trump maintains substantial influence within the Republican Party, and as recent reports suggest, he is dominating the early primary race in a way that’s unprecedented in modern history.
Experts specializing in polling, interviewed by The Daily Caller, pointed out that Trump’s commanding lead in most polls is so substantial that it could be demoralizing for other GOP contenders.
The current Republican primary season stands out as unique, with a former president leading the race, maintaining a significant advantage in polls, and facing competition from his former vice president. Additionally, Trump carries the weight of two federal indictments.
Experts highlighted the striking differences between this GOP primary season and past cycles, asserting that it’s challenging to find comparable scenarios in recent history.
Kyle Kondik, a polling analyst and managing editor for the nonpartisan Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, emphasized that Trump’s current position is unique because, while not technically an incumbent, he is being treated as a quasi-incumbent by Republican voters.
Jon McHenry, a vice president at North Star Opinion Research and a GOP polling analyst, underscored that the extraordinary nature of this Republican primary is attributed to Trump’s reshaping of the party and his indictment by the Manhattan district attorney. These factors have significantly influenced Trump’s strong position in the polls.
Both analysts agreed that this primary cycle is exceptional, with Trump’s role in reshaping the Republican Party and his unprecedented polling position contributing to its distinctiveness.