Donald Trump is gaining ground on Joe Biden in Minnesota, a state that has not supported a Republican president in more than five decades, as per multiple recent polls. Trump and Biden are currently neck and neck at 45% in Minnesota, based on a recent Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey. Other recent polls also indicate that Trump is within the margin of error in this traditionally Democratic state. The last time Minnesota voted for a Republican candidate was in 1972, when Richard Nixon won the state.
“While Minnesota hasn’t voted Republican at the presidential level in a long time, it was decided by fewer than 45,000 votes in 2016, and by fewer than 100,000 votes in 2004,” Jon McHenry, GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research said. “It’s certainly in play this time around.”
New batch of swing state polls from Emerson College. Trump leads in all of them, Minnesota is tied:
Arizona: Trump +4
Georgia: Trump +4
Michigan: Trump +1
Minnesota: TIE
Nevada: Trump +3
Pennsylvania: Trump +2
Wisconsin: Trump +3https://t.co/pCrjSIJ4NC— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 20, 2024
Biden’s lead in Minnesota has been gradually decreasing, as indicated by various polls. In June, the Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy findings showed Biden leading Trump by four points. Similarly, a KSTP/SurveyUSA poll conducted in May revealed Biden’s slim two point lead in Minnesota.
It is worth noting that Biden’s victory in Minnesota in 2020 was in line with historical trends, with a margin of 7.2%. In comparison, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee in 2016, won the state by a narrower margin of 1.5%. Furthermore, former President Barack Obama secured victories in Minnesota in both 2012 and 2008, with margins of 7.7% and 10.2% respectively.
“The reason Donald Trump can run so close in Minnesota is the general level of dissatisfaction with Joe Biden’s presidency, especially in his handling of the economy and illegal immigration,” McHenry told DCNF. “Unless voters change their minds about the economy, states that narrowly voted for President Biden in 2020 are going to flip, and states that gave him a more solid margin like Minnesota are going to be very close.”
According to a recent poll conducted by Roanoke College, Trump and Biden were also tied in Virginia. It is worth noting that Virginia has not voted for a Republican candidate since former President George W. Bush in 2004. However, according to RealClearPolitics polling averages, Trump is currently leading in all swing states. In Arizona, he is leading by 4.6 points, while in Nevada, he is leading by 5.7 points. Moving on to the Rust Belt, Trump holds a slight lead in Wisconsin by 0.3 points, in Michigan by 0.2 points, and in Pennsylvania by 2.3 points. In the South, Trump is leading in North Carolina by 5.3 points and in Georgia by 5 points.
“In the swing states we’ve polled, majorities of voters say they were better off financially under Donald Trump, so the Trump campaign is probably three-quarters of the way there,” McHenry said/