According to prominent pollsters John and Jim McLaughlin, the Republican primary race is effectively decided, with former President Donald Trump emerging as the winner even before the first votes are cast. Their data also indicates that Trump is performing strongly in polls against President Biden, suggesting a real possibility of defeating him in the upcoming election.
“Since our last national poll, Donald Trump has gone to Iowa, New Hampshire, and to court. The most attention Joe Biden received was when he flew back and forth to Israel, where he may be talking tough while appeasing Hamas and Iran,” they wrote at Newsmax.
“The result: President Trump destroys the Republican primary field and widens his lead over Joe Biden,” they added.
The pollsters also pointed out the following: “In the Republican primary, Donald Trump has secured his largest lead of the year, leading by 47%. He has garnered 55% of the vote, while Ron DeSantis has dropped to 8% (significantly down from 31% in January). Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy each have 8%, Mike Pence 6%, Chris Christie 3%, Tim Scott 2%, and Larry Elder, Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Perry Johnson each received 1%, with 10% remaining undecided. Since the poll’s inception, Larry Elder, Perry Johnson, and Mike Pence have all withdrawn from the race. In a two-way contest between President Trump and Ron DeSantis, Trump leads 73% to DeSantis’ 27%, with no undecided voters.”
The McLaughlins also observed that Ron DeSantis is facing increasing negative ratings, with a notable decline in his favorability. In January of this year, his favorable rating stood at 40% with an unfavorable rating of 39%. However, it has now decreased to 34% favorable and 51% unfavorable, reflecting an 18-point drop in net favorability.
“Among Republican primary voters, his favorable rating is only 57%, with a significant share being negative, 29% unfavorable. This makes it very, very hard for Ron DeSantis to prove that he can beat Joe Biden, while Donald Trump is leading,” they wrote.
Furthermore, the McLaughlin brothers pointed out that Trump maintains a commanding lead over his former UN ambassador, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, with a 75-25 percent advantage.
Interestingly, the pollsters observed that Trump’s decision to abstain from attending GOP primary debates, including his announcement of skipping the third debate, has been to his advantage. In their view, this approach has resonated positively with many GOP voters. Most Republican voters believe that the debates should conclude, and the remaining field should rally around Trump with a singular focus on defeating President Biden.
When GOP primary voters were asked, “Currently Donald Trump is leading in all the Republican primary polls nationally by very big margins of 30, 40 or more points and winning early states like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina by big margins. Even more important President Trump leads Joe Biden in the national media polls like ABC/Washington Post, CBS, Harvard Harris and others. It’s time to stop the RNC debates attacking Donald Trump, fight Biden’s political indictments, and rally Republicans behind President Trump so we can start the campaign of beating Joe Biden” – 76 percent of them agreed, and only 16 percent disagreed.
Trump is also making inroads with traditional Democrat voting blocs.
“Among all voters President Trump leads Joe Biden 48% to 43% with 9% undecided. Most interesting President Trump receives 27% of the African American vote and 39% among Hispanics. Joe Biden is losing a good portion of his 2020 voting base,” the pollsters wrote.
This is largely due to the fact that a significant 70 percent of all voters believe that the United States is heading in the wrong direction, while only 24 percent think it’s on the right track.
Regarding Biden’s job performance, his approval rating stands at just 43 percent among all voters, with 55 percent expressing disapproval.
In addition, the Republicans currently have a lead over the Democrats in generic congressional polls, with a margin of 47-43 percent.
“It’s too early to say Trump has won the 2024 election, but his prospects are looking very strong,” the pollsters wrote. “Donald Trump as President and a Republican majority in Congress. We have a year to go.”
