Following the first presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, recent polls indicate that Trump has significantly increased his lead over Biden for the 2024 race. Biden’s lackluster performance during the debate has caused turmoil within the Democratic party, with calls to replace him as the party’s nominee. In contrast, Trump’s popularity among voters appears to have surged.
A study by Democracy Corps, conducted before and after the debate, revealed a significant drop in support for Biden, particularly among key Democratic voting blocs such as black, Hispanic, and third-party voters. According to the Wall Street Journal, five national surveys conducted after the debate showed that Trump’s average lead over Biden has increased from 1.5 points to 3.2 points. Additionally, a poll by CBS/YouGov released just a day after the debate indicated that 72% of Americans no longer believe Biden is mentally or cognitively fit for a second term, marking a seven-point increase from a previous survey in June.
Pollster Nate Silver commented on the numbers, suggesting that Biden’s support may continue to decline as the fallout from the debate persists, although the data is subject to change. According to Silver’s latest figures, Trump leads Biden nationally by an estimated 3 points, with Trump at 42.7%, Biden at 39.7%, and independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9.5%.
Reports of Biden’s declining popularity within key Democratic voting demographics began to circulate widely in May following a New York Times/Siena poll. The poll indicated that Trump and Biden were nearly tied among younger voters aged 18 to 29, as well as Hispanic voters, despite Biden securing 60% of their vote in the 2020 election. Moreover, the poll revealed that Trump had gained significant support among black voters, potentially reaching close to 20% of the voting bloc. This would mark one of the highest levels of support for a Republican candidate since the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
In light of speculation about Biden’s potential replacement as the Democratic nominee, a recent Ipsos poll compared the odds of other potential nominees against Trump. Among the leading contenders, former First Lady Michelle Obama emerged as the only Democrat with a double-digit lead over Trump, with Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer trailing by five points, Vice President Kamala Harris by one point, and California Gov. Gavin Newsom by three points.
Despite these challenges, Biden and his team have maintained their resolve, with the president continuing to move forward as the nominee. An upcoming post-debate interview with ABC’s George Stephanopoulos is set to be released in segments on Friday, followed by the full version on Sunday morning.
